Precious Metals Powering Higher as Silver Leads Charge
28 March 2025
Gold prices have held above the critical USD $3,000 per troy ounce (oz) level this week, while silver is now above USD $34oz.
The market did see a minor pullback in pricing toward the start of the week, but that was largely erased overnight, with gold and silver up just over 1% (gold) and 2% (silver) respectively in the last 24 hours.
Bullion prices are also continuing to trade near record highs in Australian dollars, with gold currently over AUD $4850oz, while silver has climbed above AUD $55oz, with the gold to silver ratio sitting at 89.
Silver now looks like it’s on the verge of a major breakout, with the USD silver price having closed at a 45-year high vs foreign currencies. History suggests it will strongly outperform during the strongest parts of the precious metal bull market cycle.
In precious metal news this week we have seen a number of interesting developments, including;
More bullish forecasts, with Goldman Sachs issuing a USD $3,300oz price forecast by the end of the year. They cited stronger than expected central bank demand (they updated their forecasts by 240 tonnes per annum from this sector alone) and renewed inflows into gold ETFs as key drivers of the market. Discussing central banks specifically, analysts at Goldman noted; “Central banks — particularly in emerging markets — have increased gold purchases roughly fivefold since 2022, following the freezing of Russian reserves. We view this as a structural shift in reserve management behavior, and we do not expect a near-term reversal.”
The head of gold at SPDR, Aakash Doshi was also optimistic on the outlook for bullion, noting; “the market could potentially push another 8%-10% higher by end-2025 if the current macro and physical market tailwinds sustain for the yellow metal.”
Chinese Insurance Companies conducted their first gold transactions at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, a ‘proof of concept’ that could be the start of a meaningful new source of demand for the precious metal, with Bank of America suggesting an additional 300 tonnes of demand could come from this segment of the market.
David Tait, World Gold Council CEO, recently commented on these developments, noting that; ““We are pleased to see China actively exploring ways to involve insurance funds in gold investments, a move that will have significant implications for the future development of both China’s insurance and gold markets. Since 2013, China has established itself as both the world’s largest producer and consumer of gold. Allowing insurance funds to invest in gold will further promote the development of China’s gold investment market, drive product innovation, optimize the investor structure in China’s gold market, enhance its international influence and competitiveness, and thus inject new vitality into the global gold market.”
With uncertainty around tariffs and trade policy likely to remain a key risk factor for the foreseeable future, and increased volatility in risk assets, it is not hard to understand why bullion is finding its way into more and more portfolios, both institutional and otherwise, everyday.
Pullbacks and Bull Markets
While we remain very bullish on the medium to long-term outlook for precious metals, it would be remiss not to note that both gold and silver typically do see pullbacks across the full investment cycle.
The chart below, which is based on the USD gold price, shows three data points.
The grey shaded area represents how far above or below the USD gold price is relative to the 200-day moving average (200DMA) USD gold price. When the grey area is above 0 it means gold is trading above the 200DMA, and vice versa.
The gold line shows how far or below the current gold price is relative to the 200DMA, but in percentage terms.
The red line shows the mean, or average difference between gold and its 200DMA, in percentage terms, since 2015.
Gold vs the 200-Day Moving Average
The chart shows that gold is currently trading at about a 16% premium to its 200DMA. That’s not as large a gap as we have seen at previous points in the past, but it does evidence the fact that gold has had a very strong run in recent months.
The data also shows that gold often reverts and tends to fall back toward the 200DMA in the inevitable corrective periods that are a regular, and indeed healthy part of any bull market cycle.
Go for Gold Saver
The ABC Bullion Gold Saver has been an increasingly popular investment choice in recent years, with investments into the product growing by 300% since early 2022.
The product has many features that make it attractive to investors including:
Accessibility, with a minimum of just $50 per month.
Flexibility, with the ability to save on a weekly, fortnightly or monthly basis.
Choice, with clients able to save in both gold and silver.
No account based or storage fees.
24/7 market access through the ABC Bullion website.
The ability to convert to bars, coins or tablets.
Channel Seven recently ran a feature story on the product, which you can view below.
Jordan Eliseo
General Manager, ABC Bullion Australia
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