ABC Refinery Monthly Precious Metals Technical Analysis Report August 2022
02 September 2022
Welcome to the August monthly report, looking at gold, silver, the Dollar Index and the AUD via a more or less technical lens.
As always, The Pod of Gold podcast with Shae Russell is great for a discussion on gold, silver and wider macro themes in between each monthly report.
Monetary conditions continue to tighten and the debate over whether the Federal Reserve would pivot to weaker rates in the face of recession fears appears to have been settled with hawkish commentary at Jackson Hole Symposium, which has also knocked the recent ‘BRM’ – Bear Market Rally. The USD was bid up on continued expectations around tightening. Inflation prints – and projections – moved higher, especially for the UK. Inflation break-evens remain very low, suggesting that markets are looking through current
Crude continues to weaken, expecting weaker economic conditions, however above US$90, US$120~125 remains a possibility.