Good morning everyone,
 
Gold and silver continued their retreat on Monday as US equities and Greenback strength weighed upon precious metals investor sentiment. ETF redemptions in gold have also dragged gold lower with the SPDR ETF seeing its largest outflow in six months over the course of last week.
 
Technically, gold has moved to ‘make or break’ levels for bulls in AUD and USD terms.
 
In XAU/AUD terms, gold has tested and held major trendline support at AUD 1634. Should the uptrend line which commenced back in mid-December last year fail to arrest the decline, then the end of March low at AUD 1621.50, the 21st of March low at 1591.40, and the March 15th low at AUD 1578 could all potentially be paid a visit.
 
XAU/USD also is perched just above major trendline support at USD 1241.50, a break of which could trigger momentum driven selling. The 200 Day Moving average at USD 1236.50 would be the last line of technical defence. Beneath, very little in terms of technical support emerges until the May 9th low at USD 1214.
 
Good luck.
 
Regards,
Andre

Good morning everyone,
 
Gold and silver continued their retreat on Monday as US equities and Greenback strength weighed upon precious metals investor sentiment. ETF redemptions in gold have also dragged gold lower with the SPDR ETF seeing its largest outflow in six months over the course of last week.
 
Technically, gold has moved to ‘make or break’ levels for bulls in AUD and USD terms.
 
In XAU/AUD terms, gold has tested and held major trendline support at AUD 1634. Should the uptrend line which commenced back in mid-December last year fail to arrest the decline, then the end of March low at AUD 1621.50, the 21st of March low at 1591.40, and the March 15th low at AUD 1578 could all potentially be paid a visit.
 
XAU/USD also is perched just above major trendline support at USD 1241.50, a break of which could trigger momentum driven selling. The 200 Day Moving average at USD 1236.50 would be the last line of technical defence. Beneath, very little in terms of technical support emerges until the May 9th low at USD 1214.
 
Good luck.
 
Regards,
Andre

Good morning everyone and I trust you had a good weekend.
 
The effects of Wednesday’s US FOMC monetary policy statement continued to reverberate across the precious metals space as last week drew to a close with the complex remaining on the back foot and under pressure.
 
The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders Report (as at June 13th) showed:
 
Significant long liquidation from the non-commercial speculative community in gold prior to last Wednesday’s FOMC statement.
 
Heavy short selling by silver speculative accounts, erasing the net 24.4 mio ozs increase in long length (Futures & Options Combined) of the prior week.
 
Platinum non-commercial speculative investors re-entering on the short side.
 
The squeeze in palladium eased but the industrial metal remained in demand and outperformed the remainder of the precious metals complex.

Good morning everyone.
 
The focus overnight was entirely upon the US central bank’s FOMC monetary policy statement which confirmed a widely anticipated interest rate hike by raising the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25%.

Good morning everyone and I trust you enjoyed your long weekend.
 
Keeping it brief this morning, gold and silver are both weaker since we last convened in spite of a softer US Dollar Index and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In all likelihood the significant increase in long length as evidenced by the latest COTR data, triggered some speculative rebalancing / profit taking on Monday ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC announcement where it is anticipated that interest rates will be increased by the US central bank.
 
The focus of the week will be the meeting of the US central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Tuesday & Wednesday (with a monetary policy statement to follow at it’s conclusion), where market consensus expects that the Fed will move to raise its cash rate.

Good morning everyone and Happy Friday!
 
Gold, silver and platinum slid lower in AUD terms before bargain hunting and shortcovering lifted them out of their lows while a ‘squeeze’ in palladium continued to drive the industrial metal higher.
 
Overnight the ECB left rates unchanged (main refinancing operations, marginal lending facility and deposit facility rates remain at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively) but a slight change in the statement’s wording from rates remaining at “present levels or lower,” to “The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases,” saw the Euro weaken against the Greenback which weighed on precious metals values, with the exception of palladium which has seen the forward curve move into heavy backwardation (1 month trading at -4% and the EFP blowing out to -$6.00).

Good morning everyone.
 
If gold is the thermometer that reflects the health of the global economic and geopolitical body at any moment in time, then the yellow metal’s rally overnight to the mid-April high (in USD terms) appears to be signalling that all may not be well. The prognosis may carry additional weight given the level of support in spite of the old tried and (relatively) trusted aphorism “Sell in May and go away”, which references the period between May and the start of September when the markets slip into a torpor due to impact of the northern hemisphere summer vacation period.

Good morning everyone.
 
Economic data releases are seemingly providing the intraday speculative flux at present, with political and geopolitical events less dominant for the moment but still a major factor nonetheless.
 
In USD terms, both gold and silver trekked sideways on Monday but in AUD terms both were driven lower throughout the day, as the AUD found friends again, rallying almost 80 pips to just shy of 0.7500

Good morning everyone. I trust you had a good weekend.
 
Having drifted lower throughout Asian trading on Friday before a positon-squaring bounce into the European session, gold was spurred higher by a worse than expected Non-Farm Payrolls figure from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the US.
 
May Non-Farm Payrolls came in at +138K (vs +180K expected, whilst NFP’s for April were also revised lower by 37K). Consequently, the US Dollar weakened, US treasuries rallied and the precious metals complex spiked higher as investors reasoned that while a rate tightening by the US Federal Reserve at its June meeting remains on the cards, further monetary policy tightening throughout the year was decidedly less likely. Peculiarly, US equity markets remained buoyant in spite of the headline employment figure.
 
Further strength has been seen at the open in pre-market trade this morning, on the back of the appalling events in central London on Saturday evening which justifiably has received saturation coverage elsewhere and requires no further comment here. What does merit comment however, is the effect this will have on this Thursday’s UK General Election. The Theresa May led Conservatives were seemingly headed for an increased majority when the snap poll was called but the polls have tightened considerably (for whatever they are worth) over the course of the campaign and now, the impact Saturday’s attack will have on the outcome is anyone’s guess - hence the ‘safe-haven’ bid that the metals have acquired this morning in early trade.
 
Technically, both XAU/AUD & XAU/USD have moved beyond significant technical barriers and it now remains to be seen whether precious metals bulls have the momentum behind them to further the advance. In XAU/AUD terms, the way remains opens to the early November high at 1760 while XAU/USD will have its sights set on the mid-April high at USD 1295.50 (and then the psychological ‘big-figure’ at USD 1300).
 
Friday’s release of the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders data (as at May 30th) showed;
 
·         Non-commercial gold speculative buying exceeded short-selling by a ratio of 7:1 (Futures & Options Combined) over the course of the week. Net long length increasing by approximately 1.2 mio ozs as various data releases created uncertainty in relation to the US FOMC’s monetary policy announcement later this month.
 
·         Silver’s rally was entirely short-covering. Buying interest was next-to-nothing whilst short positioning was significantly reduced by approximately 50 million ounces.
 
·         Platinum non-commercial speculative accounts pared back positioning with both long and short exposures reduced.
 
·         Palladium saw a modest increase in non-commercial speculative long length of approximately 40,000 ozs.

Good morning everyone and Happy Friday. The winning post is in sight!
 
A real mixed bag across the precious metals complex yesterday with various data releases creating flux ahead of today’s all-important employment data release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the US.
 
XAU/AUD moved beyond the previously solid technical barrier at the 1710 level. XAU/USD which had drifted lower throughout the day, pared losses by the New York close. Silver which had been driven lower during Asian and European trading, bounced rubber-like once US trading was underway. Platinum on the other hand was shunned by investors while palladium advanced solidly.

Good morning everyone.
 
After some backfilling (technical corrective & consolidation work) during Far Eastern trading yesterday, the precious metals complex (gold particularly) steadied and forged ahead to re-test Friday’s highs.
 
Supportive elements included the uncertainty created by the tightening of various polls ahead of next Thursday’s UK General Election (some showing the Corbyn led Labour party within 3% of the ruling Conservatives), with an additional leg-up provided by some soft economic data out of the US, especially a poor Pending Home Sales figure. This placed the US dollar under pressure, benefiting gold as investors were also forced to temper their expectations of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve at their June meeting.
 
U.S. NAR Pending Home Sales (April) were down 1.3% (109.8 vs 112.0 expected and vs 111.3 for March; -5.4% y/y). This represents the biggest drop in pending home sales since August 2014 and the second monthly drop in a row in addition to downward revisions over the last few months.
 
Technically, both XAU/AUD & XAU/USD are positioned within striking distance of major resistance zones. XAU/AUD at 1710/15 & and XAU/USD at 1275. The release of US employment data on Friday could have the final say on whether these levels are dispensed with and if so, there is the potential for significant stop-less and momentum driven buying.
 
Good luck.
 
Regards,
Andre

Good morning everyone.
 
Precious metals bulls (those of them at their desks with Chinese, UK and US investors absent) managed to press their advantage in think market conditions during Far Eastern trading, as the complex picked up what appears to have been a ‘flight to quality’ bid (in conjunction with the US dollar) on the back of investor jitters in relation to newswire stories canvassing a potential Greek debt default.
 
As noted in yesterdays commentary, it was always going to require the resumption of full market liquidity resulting from the return of UK and US investors to validate Friday’s ascent in the metals.
 
The resounding verdict delivered at the commencement of European trading (and which was to continue into US trading) was that the surge higher was technical in nature (shortcovering / booksquaring ahead of a long weekend in thin liquidity) and consequently gold and silver rolled over and surrendered about half of their gains, platinum erased the entirety of its gains from Friday, while palladium bucked the sentiment and remained bid throughout Tuesday’s trading.
 
Attention should now turn to the release of monthly employment data from the US on Friday (and the potential impact on the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement scheduled for June).
 
From Europe, investor nervousness has been triggered by the tarot-card reading pollsters who are suggesting that the upcoming British election on June 8th may result in a hung parliament (the same prediction they made for the 2015 General Election which ultimately saw the Conservatives obtain a comfortable majority). The Greek debt situation will continue to remain closely monitored by the markets.
 
Technically, with XAU/AUD trading up to a tick over AUD 1710 before rolling over, a technical “double-top” was put in place on the Daily charts. Thus, AUD 1700/1710 for the moment remains intact as a formidable technical resistance zone and the broader XAU/AUD AUD 1650 - 1710 range remains unbroken.  
 
The XAU/USD Daily price action remains contained within a triangular congestion region (with trendline support pegged at USD 1229 & trendline resistance at USD 1275 for today). Momentum buying or momentum selling is likely to ensue depending on which side of the congestion region gold eventually breaks out from.
 
Good luck.
 
Regards,
Andre

via business insider

In his keynote speech, Mark Yusko, CIO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, outlined where he sees the biggest opportunities and risks for investors are today.

Good morning everyone.
 
A quiet start to the week with activity significantly curtailed by the absence of UK and US investors who were observing a bank holiday and Memorial Day long weekend respectively.
 
The return of investors in both centres later today and the accompanying return of liquidity at the re-commencement of trading, should provide a clearer indication regarding the veracity of Friday’s move higher.

Australian asset manager Altair Asset Management has made the extraordinary decision to liquidate its Australian shares funds and return "hundreds of millions" of dollars back to its clients, citing an impending property market "calamity" and the "overvalued and dangerous time in this cycle". Via SMH

Gold and silver prices have enjoyed a strong end to May 2017, with the former now trading back above AUD $1700oz. This week will likely prove decisive in terms of where the market heads next, with all eyes on Friday nights US non-farm payroll data, which may play a major role in the Fed’s pending June decision re US interest rates.

Good morning everyone and I trust you had a good weekend.
 
Well, gold and silver surged higher on Friday and I must admit I am at a bit of a loss as to the reason(s) why.
 
It’s probably best to lay out a few points of interest but it would be drawing a very long bow to suggest that any of them were compelling reasons for the surge in precious metals.
 
Firstly, today is a long weekend in both the UK (Spring Bank Holiday) and the US (Memorial Day). It is quite possible that any booksquaring or buying as insurance against geopolitical developments arising when the markets are closed, was greatly amplified due to liquidity draining away ahead of the long weekend.
 
Looking at market correlations, the US Dollar Index rallied and finished near its day’s highs (normally this would weigh on precious metals values) and US equity indexes, whilst tracking sideways, also loitered near recent highs (again, a factor that would generally weigh upon precious metals values).
 
It is possible that some investors were positioning for what is presently the contrarian trade, that the US Federal Reserve contrary to market consensus, will not hike rates at the June FOMC meeting in a few weeks.
 
Drawing a really long bow, the US press were carrying story’s the President Trump’s son-in-law was under FBI investigation for potential connections to “The Russians” (a potential cause of instability within the Trump Administration).
 
On the economic data release front from the US, April Durable Goods Orders fell by 0.7% to $231.2 billion (vs -1.1% expected), the May University of Michigan sentiment index (final) was revised down to 97.1 (vs 97.5 expected and vs 97.7 preliminary and 97.0 in April).
 
Finally (and I’ve been reticent to draw attention to it, however it’s been receiving a lot of press), the cryptocurrency Bitcoin which had surged to record highs at USD 2,779, saw 10% of its ‘value’ erased on Friday (Daily chart going back 2 years attached, illustrating the recent parabolic move). Whilst there is no doubt that Bitcoin has gained considerable traction as a medium of exchange, it would be hard to argue the case for ‘store of value’ on the back of 10% reversals intraday.
 
Turning to the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders (as at May 23rd);
 
·         Gold non-commercial speculative longs returned to the market in numbers as short speculative positioning was reduced - a net change in length of almost 4 mio ozs (Futures & Options Combined). This was likely due to the latest FOMC Minutes giving investors pause for thought regarding the prospect of a June interest rate hike. Also supportive, the near daily confusion surrounding investigations, allegations, claims and denials in relation to the Trump Administration.
 
·         Silver non-commercial speculative positioning saw long liquidation but it was overwhelming shortcovering that provided the bounce in the white metal.
 
·         Similarly, platinum saw long liquidation from the non-commercial speculative community but this was also overwhelmed by shortcovering which bolstered values.
 
·         Long liquidation characterised the shift in palladium non-commercial speculative positioning with some modest shortcovering evident.

Good morning everyone and Happy Friday.
 
A mixed bag in precious metals as at the close of business in New York on Thursday.
 
XAU/AUD & XAG/AUD closed firmer, bolstered purely by Aussie dollar weakness as both metals managed to rally in AUD terms in the face of a stronger USD Index and higher US equity markets. The reason for the Aussie dollar weakness was likely the AUD’s reaction (as a perceived ‘commodity currency’) to the precipitous 5.7% drop in crude oil overnight (see intraday chart attached), which was administered the “baby seal treatment” by speculators stemming from investor displeasure with OPEC’s (and its partners’) decision to extend production cuts for only nine more months instead of the far deeper cuts anticipated. OPEC announced that no new non-OPEC members will join the global supply reduction deal and it would maintain production cuts of 1.8 mio bpd as agreed in late November 2016. And in a nutshell, that about covers it.

ABC Bullion cements leadership position in global bullion market with full LBMA membership

Good morning everyone.
 
Choppy, sideways trade within a comparatively narrow range was seen yesterday in XAU/AUD with a firming Aussie dollar during late US trading negating a rally in XAU/USD.
 
The big news yesterday was the downgrading by Moody’s Investor Service of China’s long-term sovereign debt rating to A1 from Aa3. The reason given for the downgrade was a ‘material rise’ in debt across the entire Chinese economy.

Good morning everyone and I trust you had a good weekend.
 
Choppy, volatile trade was seen across the precious metals complex to close out the week with gold and silver discounting the continuing rebound in US equities and instead taking their lead from a weaker US Dollar Index, to finish firmer on the week. Palladium, which had proved the stellar performer of the complex (in the face of weakness across gold, silver and platinum) spent the week backpedalling.
 
US domestic political flux, geopolitical tensions, economic data releases and the probability of a US Federal Reserve rate hike in June all remained in investor’s crosshairs.
 
Friday’s release of the CFTC Commitments of Traders Report (as at May 16th) showed:
 
·         Continuing significant long liquidation AND short selling by non-commercial speculative participants in gold
 
·         Continuing heavy short selling in silver, however the lower levels provided the opportunity for ‘bargain hunting’ for non-commercial speculators as they dipped their toes back in from the long side.
 
·         Modest short covering in platinum.
 
·         Modest long liquidation and short selling in palladium.

In a stunning announcement made by one of China’s largest insurers, Foresea Life has warned of "mass defaults and social unrest" unless China's regulator lifts a recent ban on its issuance of new products.

Good morning everyone and Happy Friday!
 
Confusion on the US political scene transmitted across to financial market volatility yesterday as early US dollar and equity market weakness drove precious metals values higher, before a reversal in the Dollar and stocks pushed the precious metals complex lower by the close of trading in New York.

Good morning everyone,
 
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” (John Maynard Keynes).
 
It pains me having to draw inspiration from the British economist but given what’s been witnessed across the financial markets over the past 24 hours, Keynes’ observation is apposite.
 
Without venturing into overtly political territory, the unprecedented white-anting of the Trump Administration via leaks, conjecture, speculation and arguably some outright falsehoods disseminated by various ‘media’ outlets provided to them by ‘anonymous’ sources in an attempt to link President Trump (and anyone connected with him) with nefarious dealings with ‘The Russians’ (as a path to impeachment), turned into a frenzy yesterday and spooked the markets as investors fled US stocks and the Dollar and sought refuge in perceived safe havens like precious metals. Additional fuel was provided by the fact that precious metals markets were significantly less long than they were a month ago.
 
That pretty much captures the nature of Wednesday’s move in a nutshell.
 
Technically, XAU/USD posted a monster bullish engulfing candlestick on the Daily chart yesterday, bursting through minor trendline resistance and bringing the psychological ‘big figure’ at AUD 1700 as well as the mid-April resistance at the AUD 1710/1715 level back into play. Dips are likely to be bought. A huge bullish candlestick was also posted in XAU/USD and having eventually cleared resistance at USD 1245, the way now opens back towards USD 1280.
 
With gold rallying more appreciably than silver, the Gold/Silver ratio reversed the entirety of its slide lower over the previous couple of days.
 
The intraday (inverse) correlation between the USD/JPY & XAU/USD remained strong however it was clear that it was ‘headline risk’ that drove all markets yesterday and should continue to do so in the interim.
 
Good luck.
 
Regards,
Andre

Gold and silver were firmer as the week commenced and perhaps it was no great surprise, as a cursory glance at the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders Report (as at May 9th) showed significant length had come out of both metals with long liquidation continuing unabated over the course of the reporting week. Also supporting precious metals prices on Monday was a softer US Dollar Index.